Glenview Trust chief investment officer Bill Stone believes the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will act like a major economic stimulus in early 2026, powered by a surge in tax refunds and business tax relief hitting the economy at roughly the same time. In his view, those cash flows could help the U.S. avoid recession and provide an important tailwind for both consumers and markets as interest rates begin to drift lower.
Stone’s Case For A 2026 Stimulus Wave
In a recent CNBC interview, Stone argued that markets are too focused on Federal Reserve rate cuts and not paying enough attention to the built‑in boost coming from Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” He expects a “shot in the arm” for growth as multiple tax cuts—on both the consumer and corporate side—start to fully bite in the first half of 2026.
Stone’s basic thesis is that if the economy can “hold it together” through the current soft patch, the combination of fiscal stimulus and easier Fed policy will improve the odds of sidestepping a recession. He sees this as a key reason stocks could stay supported or even push higher if incoming data show recession risks receding.
How “One Big Beautiful Bill” Feeds Into 2026
The law, signed in July 2025, retroactively cuts taxes for the entire 2025 tax year, but the IRS decided not to adjust withholding tables in real time. That means many workers will have “overpaid” through 2025 and get the difference back as larger refunds when they file in early 2026.
Analysts at Piper Sandler and JPMorgan estimate that this design will produce one of the biggest refund seasons on record, with tens of billions in extra cash compared with a normal year. On top of that, the bill includes sizable business tax breaks that show up in cash flow and investment decisions, adding another channel of stimulus beyond household refunds.
How Big Could The Refund And Tax Boost Be?
| Channel of impact | Key estimates and details |
|---|---|
| Household tax refunds | Piper Sandler projects about $91 billion more in 2026 refunds than usual, lifting average refunds by roughly $1,000 per filer. |
| Distribution of benefits | Middle‑ and upper‑middle‑income households ($60k–$400k) are expected to gain most; higher earners above about $217k capture a large share of total tax relief. |
| Business‑side stimulus | Strategas and others estimate roughly $285 billion in business tax relief over the first year, including expensing and rate relief that support profits and capex. |
| Overall macro effect | JPMorgan and other strategists describe the 2026 refund surge as acting like a hidden stimulus package early in the year. |
Stone leans on these outside estimates in suggesting that the total fiscal impulse from the bill—household plus corporate—will be strong enough to matter for growth and risk assets.
Why Markets Care About Stone’s View
From an investor’s standpoint, what matters is not just that money is going out, but when and how it hits. Stone notes that early‑year refunds tend to be spent quickly, especially by middle‑income households that use them for rent, debt payments, or big‑ticket items. At the same time, corporate tax relief can support earnings at a moment when markets are worried about margins and capital spending.
He argues that if this fiscal tailwind arrives just as the Fed is cutting or pausing rates, it could help keep consumer spending resilient enough to avoid the downturn equity markets have intermittently feared. In that scenario, cyclicals, consumer stocks, and some rate‑sensitive sectors could outperform as growth expectations stabilize or improve.
SOURCE
What Could Undercut The “Big Stimulus” Story
Stone also acknowledges risks that could blunt the impact of the bill. If households decide to save more of their refunds—especially higher‑income filers, who are slated to receive a disproportionate share of the tax gains—the short‑term boost to spending could be smaller than headline numbers suggest.
There is also the possibility that inflation or renewed Fed tightening offsets some of the stimulus, or that external shocks (such as geopolitical tensions) weigh on confidence at the same time refunds are arriving. For investors and households, Stone’s forecast is a reminder that while “One Big Beautiful Bill” is likely to inject substantial cash into the economy in 2026, the ultimate impact will depend on how people, companies, and policymakers respond once that money hits.
